KERALA ELECTION PREDICTION

VOTE SHARE PREDICTION
SEAT PREDICTION

The predictions are based on a probabilistic model using a methodology that takes into account the following factors
  • Historical results of the state and assembly constituency
  • Recent election trends
  • Opinion polls from reputed agencies that are publicly available
  • Quality of candidates that have been given tickets and their rating
  • Our own opinion polls wherever conducted
Most opinion polls have indicated a win for LDF, our model also predicts the LDF to win
  • In our anti-incumbency index, Pinarayi Vijayan’s government rates low at 5.1 out of 10
  • The primary opposition UDF confidence index is at 5.4 out of 10, lower than what is required for an opposition party to win elections
  • Pinarayi Vijayan’s personal popularity remains high compared to the leaders from UDF
We have made our predictions with the above factors in mind, and using our probabilistic model.

PAST ELECTION RESULTS

Below are the two previous historical election results for Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha


LOK SABHA : 2019|2014
VIDHAN SABHA : 2016|2011

CURRENT MOOD

The current mood is based on the opinion poll by P-Marq conducted between 10th March - 21st March 2021

PREFERENCE FOR CM
KEY FACTORS

OPINION POLLS - SEATS